New digital delivery services are not likely to supplant the DVD business, but rather bring digital entertainment to people by adding either convenience or accessibility that complements what the "Packaged Goods" can provide, reports In-Stat www.in-stat.com. More consumers want instant access to video on their TV sets, portable devices, and cell phone handsets, but DVDs will continue to be a popular medium and will continue to experience substantial growth.
The worldwide value of all published DVD products is expected to grow with a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 18.2%, from about US$33 Billion during 2004, up to US$76.5 Billion by 2009, the high-tech market research firm says.
"In North America, HD-DVD will jump start a round of growth for High Definition versions of Hollywood movies, as consumers begin replacing their libraries of old VHS tapes and DVDs," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst. "HD-DVDs will appear later this year, to take advantage of the growing installed base of HDTV sets in the US. However, we expect Blu-Ray products to take off in Asia in 2006, and in Europe and the ROW during 2007. Music videos, DualDisc products, and locally produced DVDs will account for 20% of the market value by 2009."
The In-Stat report also reported the following findings:
- Point-of-Sale systems, like those from Rimage, will be connected to secure networks that are already in place to support digital signage applications. These kiosks will be used to "burn" DVD discs on command, making it possible for book stores, airport shops, coffee sellers, convenience markets and other retailers to sell DVDs without maintaining large inventories, while providing huge convenience. Outside of North America, Blu-ray will become the dominant HD format, because it is backed by the "who's who" of international consumer electronics manufacturers, and ultimately provides more storage capacity and better features.
- Professional-quality DVD authoring packages are becoming widely available, which will increase the market for locally produced DVDs with all kinds of "content" from local movies, musical groups, churches, museums, businesses and regional video producers.
- By 2009, nearly 55% of all TV households will be connected to at least one of the non-traditional network delivery systems such as Cable TV, Satellite networks, Digital Terrestrial TV, or Broadband TV service.
The report, Worldwide Electronic Entertainment: Packaged Goods Value And Network-Connected Households (#IN0501914CM), examines the worldwide market for consumer-oriented digital video entertainment. The report provides in-depth discussion and analysis of five trends that are shaping the DVD industry, and three trends that are shaping network-connected TV services. It contains forecasts for the regional and worldwide value of DVD markets broken out by Standard DVDs, Blu-ray DVDs, HD-DVDs, and Music and Locally Produced DVDs. It also includes forecasts for the number of TV households in four regions that will be connected to traditional, over-the-air broadcast TV, Cable TV, pay-TV Satellite services, Digital Terrestrial TV and Broadband (IP-TV) video services.